How Do New Technologies Diffuse?
Economic Research Working Paper No. 91
Author: Carsten Fink
Author: Maria de las Mercedes Menéndez
Author: Julio Raffo
Publication year: 2026
License: 
DOI: English
Technology diffusion is central to economic development. This paper examines diffusion patterns for 31 technologies for 139 countries over two centuries, extending existing databases to include recent digital technologies and renewable energy technologies. Using cross-country panel regressions, we find that while adoption lags have declined from 50 years (pre-1950) to 15 years (post-2000), adoption intensity in developing economies remains at 53% of advanced economy levels. We document diverging intensity for older technologies but emerging convergence for post-2000 technologies, suggesting digital innovations may reduce the technology gap. These findings inform policies aimed at accelerating technology diffusion to developing economies.
