5 Connect, adopt, absorb: digital technology diffusion

Digital technologies such as submarine cables, broadband networks, data-driven platforms and AI have become the backbone of modern economies. Yet, not all economies realize the promise of digital transformation. This chapter traces why connectivity and digital capabilities advance rapidly in some regions while others remain constrained by infrastructure gaps, affordability barriers, skills shortages, and regulatory hurdles. It shows that unlocking inclusive digital diffusion requires more than new technologies—it demands coordinated investments, balanced IP governance, and policies that ensure all countries and communities can participate in the opportunities of the digital age.

Introduction

Digital technologies (DTs) have reshaped the global economy and the way societies innovate. Over the past three decades, they have changed how people communicate, access information and carry out daily transactions. (1)See Goldfarb, A. and Tucker, C. (2019). Digital economics. Journal of Economic Literature, 57(1), 3–43. Understanding how these technologies spread, and what this means for economies and societies, is now vital for individuals, businesses and policymakers. (2)This case study draws on Cariolle J. (2026). Digital Transformations in Developing Economies: From the First-mile Infrastructure to the End-user Fingertips. WIPO Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 96. Geneva: World Intellectual Property Organization.

While much of today’s digital technology development is concentrated in the United States of America and China, its benefits extend far beyond national borders. (3)See Krugmann, P. (2025). Tech and the Wealth of Nations: Does every country need to have a Silicon Valley? Innovation in one region often sparks diffusion in others, enabling countries worldwide to access and adapt new tools and services. (4)See WIPO (2019). World Intellectual Property Report 2019: The Geography of Innovation: Local Hotspots, Global Networks https://www.wipo.int/wipr/en/2019/. This case study explores how digital technologies spread, the forces that drive or hinder their diffusion, and their impact, especially in developing economies.

While many digital technologies matter, this chapter focuses on those that make internet connectivity possible at both national and international levels. These include submarine cables (SMCs) as well as mobile and fixed broadband. Such backbone technologies act as gatekeepers and enablers, providing the foundation for the wider spread of digital innovation. Without them no other DTs have a high chance of widespread diffusion.

Despite the significant potential of digital technologies to drive economic growth and social development, substantial barriers continue to impede their adoption and diffusion, especially in developing economies. This case study examines the primary obstacles to DT diffusion, such as infrastructure constraints, human capital challenges, affordability, regulatory impediments and market structure issues. These barriers vary widely across regions and demographic groups, creating persistent digital divides that threaten to exacerbate existing socioeconomic inequalities.

The chapter also examines how intellectual property shapes diffusion in the digital era. Global technology standards, such as 4G, 5G, and Wi-Fi, play a central role in digital transformation. The patents protecting inventions essential to these standards, known as standard essential patents (SEPs), are central to digital transformation. (5)A SEP is a patent that protects an invention essential to the implementation of a particular technology standard. See https://www.wipo.int/en/web/patents/topics/sep. The growing importance of interoperability in the era of the Internet of Things (IoT), together with the spread of mobile telecommunications standards beyond mobile phones to a wide range of connected products, including smart cars and smart homes, highlights the expanding role of technology standards across sectors. In this context, a balanced approach that ensures access to technology on fair terms while allowing innovators to recover their research and development investments is essential.

By exploring these dynamics, the analysis seeks to inform policies that foster the effective spread of digital technologies while addressing the risks and inequalities that may emerge. The findings aim to serve a broad set of stakeholders, from technology developers and investors to policymakers and development agencies, who are working to harness digital innovation for inclusive and sustainable growth.

Relevance to innovation economics and global development

To begin, we define digital technologies as those innovations that allow information to flow and communication to take place. They include devices such as mobile phones, computers and radios, along with the services and functions that run through them, such as messaging, online transactions and data processing. They also cover the systems that support these functions, from basic text protocols to complex digital platforms. Over the years, successive generations of digital technologies have emerged. They range from intangible tools, such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) to those with physical manifestations, such as robots and drones. (6)See Ciarli, T., Kenney, M., Massini, S. et al. (2021). Digital technologies, innovation, and skills: Emerging trajectories and challenges. Research Policy, 50(7), 104289. The current generation is characterized by advances in machine learning (ML), the integration of multiple digital technologies, the rise of smart robotics and the growing prominence of generative AI.

DT diffusion refers to the way these technologies spread across people, firms and institutions. (7)See Chapters 1 and 2 for a broad definition of diffusion of technologies and knowledge and the channels through which technological knowledge diffuses. It involves adoption of digital knowledge and digital goods, as well as the use of software and digital services. Diffusion can extend both horizontally across regions and industries, and vertically as organizations and individuals integrate digital technologies more deeply into their activities.

Digital technologies reduce many costs. They make it cheaper to search for, copy and transport information. They lower the cost of storing and processing data. They also cut the cost of targeting and tracking, which makes communication and service delivery more efficient. Quantitative evidence shows that digital technologies, compared to traditional technologies such as steam engines, have spread much faster while their usage intensity gap globally has become wider. (8)See Chapter 1 of this report. See Comin, D. and Mestieri, M. (2018). If technology has arrived everywhere, why has income diverged? American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 10(3), 137–78.

For global development, DT diffusion has emerged as both a powerful enabler and a source of new disparities. (9)Covid-19 and the polarized impact of remote working is an example of this dual effect. See Braesemann, F., Stephany, F., Teutloff, O. et al. (2022). The global polarisation of remote work. PloS one, 17(10), e0274630. They give developing economies new ways to access global frontier knowledge, join international markets and, in some cases, leapfrog stages of development. The rise of information technology in East Asia illustrates this potential. (10)See the section on “Rise of IT in East Asian countries” in WIPO (2022). World Intellectual Property Report 2022: The Direction of Innovation https://www.wipo.int/en/web/world-ip-report/2022/index. So too does the success of mobile financial services in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which has brought financial inclusion to many who previously had no access. However, access does not automatically translate into adoption, particularly in developing economies. Various factors affect adoption. Unequal digital infrastructure, human skills and regulatory impediments have created new layers of inequality. Vulnerable groups, including women, minorities and rural communities, face a heightened risk of being left behind.

On a positive note, while developing countries’ constraints often hinder the diffusion of technologies, they can also serve as catalysts for innovation that benefit both developed and developing economies. For instance, Africa’s limited grid access has driven the development of off-grid energy solutions, generating technological knowledge that both developed and developing economies can adapt. Empirical evidence supports this dynamic: technological trajectories originating in Africa that have reached the United States and Japan are linked to battery technologies and fuel cells, (11)IPC code H01M is the most frequent class originating from Africa that has reached the United States. See Table 4 in Miguelez E., Pezzoni, M., Visentin, F. et al. (2025). The Changing Geography of International Knowledge Diffusion. WIPO Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 92. Geneva: WIPO. while those diffusing to China and India relate to wireless and telephonic communications. (12) IPC codes H04L is the most frequent class originating from Africa that has reached China and India. See Table 4 in Miguelez E., Pezzoni, M., Visentin, F. et al. (2025). The Changing Geography of International Knowledge Diffusion. WIPO Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 92. Geneva: WIPO.

Digital technology diffusion follows distinct patterns that differentiate it from the spread of other innovations and has implications for both developed and developing economies. The following section examines the core features that characterize how digital technologies propagate through economies and societies, focusing on network dynamics, infrastructure requirements, local absorptive capacity, (13)See Cohen, W.M. and Levinthal, D.A. (1990). Absorptive capacity: A new perspective on learning and innovation. Administrative Science Quarterly, 35(1), 128–52. and intellectual property considerations that collectively shape adoption trajectories across diverse contexts.

Bandwidth boom: a key feature of digital technology spread

General purpose technology and network effects

From an innovation economics perspective, the spread of digital technologies offers a clear example of how general purpose technologies (GPTs) move through economies. (14)See Bresnahan, T.F. and Trajtenberg, M. (1995). General purpose technologies “Engines of growth”? Journal of Econometrics, 65(1), 83–108. GPTs propagate through economic systems, creating spillover effects and complementary innovations that extend far beyond the initial technological change. Many digital technologies are considered GPTs, the internet being a classic example. Therefore, understanding technologies that enable internet diffusion provides insight into the broader processes of knowledge transfer and technological learning that underpin innovation-driven growth.

Evidence from literature shows that digital GPTs are growing faster than the average patent filings across all technologies. (15)See Figure 3.7 in WIPO (2022). World Intellectual Property Report 2022: The Direction of Innovation. Geneva: WIPO. https://www.wipo.int/en/web/world-ip-report/2022/index. Roughly speaking, many DTs have also directly benefited from Moore’s Law, which predicts an incredibly rapid decline in the cost of computation over time. (16)Intel co-founder, Gordon Moore’s observation that the speed and capability of computers can be expected to double every two years, as a result of increases in the number of transistors a microchip can contain. In turn, this has made the shelf life of many generations of digital technologies relatively shorter than other goods and services.

Network effects stand as another defining characteristic of internet and general DT diffusion, fundamentally altering traditional technology adoption patterns. (17)See Björkegren, D. (2019). The adoption of network goods: Evidence from the spread of mobile phones in Rwanda. The Review of Economic Studies, 86(3), 1033–60; and see Björkegren, D. and Karaca, B.C. (2022). Network adoption subsidies: A digital evaluation of a rural mobile phone program in Rwanda. Journal of Development Economics, 154, 102762. Unlike conventional goods, whose value remains constant regardless of user base, digital technologies increase in utility as their adoption widens. This creates powerful feedback loops that accelerate diffusion once critical adoption thresholds are crossed. (18)See Katz, M.L. and Shapiro, C. (1985). Network externalities, competition, and compatibility. The American Economic Review, 75(3), 424–40.

Two distinct types of network effects drive DT diffusion. Direct network effects occur when a technology’s value grows directly with its user base, exemplified by social media platforms, which become more valuable to users as their social contacts join the network. (19)See Katz, M.L. and Shapiro, C. (1994). Systems competition and network effects. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(2), 93–115. Indirect network effects emerge through complementary innovations and services that develop around widely adopted technologies. The mobile phone operating system illustrates this dynamic: as device adoption expanded, developer participation in the ecosystem surged, creating millions of applications that further enhanced a platform’s value.

These network dynamics create distinct adoption patterns, characterized by initial slow uptake followed by rapid acceleration and eventual saturation. The diffusion of smartphones across income groups demonstrates this pattern vividly.

Firewall ahead: barriers to digital adoption and diffusion

While internet use reached 74 percent of the world's population in 2025, this figure masks significant regional disparities, with the African population at only 36 percent connectivity compared to 92 percent in Europe. (20)See ITU (2025). Measuring Digital Development Facts and Figures. International Telecommunications Union, https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/facts/default.aspx?utm_source. These disparities extend beyond simple binary measures of access. They exist at infrastructure, technological, usage and financial level. Quantitative evidence shows that, on average, it takes more than 10 years for a new technological trajectory (21)See the definition of “trajectory” in Chapter 2 and in Miguelez E., Pezzoni, M., Visentin, F. et al. (2025). The Changing Geography of International Knowledge Diffusion. WIPO Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 92. Geneva: WIPO. from around the world to arrive in Africa. (22)See Figure 13 in Miguelez E., Pezzoni, M., Visentin, F. et al. (2026). The Changing Geography of International Knowledge Diffusion. WIPO Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 92. Geneva: WIPO. These gaps can impact how effectively individuals, firms and institutions leverage digital technologies into daily life and economic activity, ultimately shaping who benefits from digital transformation and to what extent.

Infrastructure constraints and capital requirements

The most fundamental divide is infrastructure and basic connectivity access. This gap stems from physical limitations, such as uneven deployment of broadband networks, energy infrastructure, insufficient carrying or data center capacity, or limited access to appropriate end-user devices. These infrastructures are organized around three interdependent layers that mirror the structure of the internet value chain: network infrastructure, data centers and end-user devices. (23)See UNCTAD (2024). Digital Economy Report 2024: Shaping an Environmentally Sustainable and Inclusive Digital Future. UN Trade and Development, based on Pohl, J. and Hinterholzer, S. (2023). Environmental effects along the life cycle of digital technologies. Einstein Centre Digital Future Working Paper No. 6. Berlin: ECDF. The internet value chain describes this sequence of interconnected segments through which digital content and services are created, transmitted and consumed. (24)See Schumann, R. and Kende, M. (2013). Lifting barriers to Internet development in Africa: Suggestions for improving connectivity. Analysys Mason Report for the Internet Society, London, 9, 30–5. It begins with international connectivity (SMCs and satellites), continues through national backbones and metropolitan networks, and culminates in last-mile access. Along this chain, critical infrastructure nodes, such as data centers, internet exchange points (IXPs) and user terminals, ensure the system’s functionality, resilience and efficiency. Weaknesses or bottlenecks in any segment can degrade service quality, increase costs and significantly impede the diffusion of digital technologies, especially in low-connectivity environments.

International infrastructure gap

Backbone connectivity infrastructure, particularly submarine cable deployment and international bandwidth capacity, are critical in facilitating cross-border data flows and ultimately the diffusion of digital technologies. (25)See Hjort, J. and Poulsen, J. (2019). The arrival of fast Internet and employment in Africa. American Economic Review, 109(3), 1032–79; Cariolle, J. (2021). International connectivity and the digital divide in Sub-Saharan Africa. Information Economics & Policy, 55, 100901; Simione, F.F. and Li, Y. (2021). The macroeconomic impacts of digitalization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from submarine cables. IMF Working Paper WP/21/110., International Monetary Fund. High-capacity SMC connections carry more than 99 percent of international and intercontinental data traffic. They expand internet access and reduce connectivity costs in the most remote parts of the world. (26)TeleGeography. (2025). Transport Networks, formerly Global Bandwidth Research Service. Currently, 597 submarine cable systems and 1,712 landing points link countries ranging from small islands to major global economies. (27)See TeleGeography https://submarine-cable-map-2025.telegeography.com/. Although the greatest advantages are enjoyed by coastal economies, landlocked countries also improve their connectivity through terrestrial fiber networks that interconnect with these cable routes (see Figure 5.1).

Access to global bandwidth capacity remains uneven across regions, as illustrated by Figure 5.2. Over the past decade it has expanded significantly in Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Americas, while Africa, the Arab States and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries continue to lag, despite recent catch-up. These infrastructures are also subject to vulnerability. An SMC cut or fault is probably the most harmful digital hazard. SMC damage is mainly caused by maritime activities, particularly anchoring and fishing nets, and, to a lesser extent, by sabotage or natural hazards, such as earthquakes or typhoons. (28)See https://www.iscpc.org/publications/icpc-viewpoints/damage-to-submarine-cables-from-dragged-anchors/. They were the second most common cause, after government interventions, of internet shutdowns in 2024. (29)See https://radar.cloudflare.com/year-in-review/2024#internet-outages.

Figure 5.3 illustrates the extent to which regions with a limited number of SMCs, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, are subject to disproportionate level of disruptions in connectivity in cases of SMC damage. In March 2024, for example, 10 African countries, primarily in West and Southern Africa, experienced major internet outages due to failures in four undersea cables. (30)See https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/03/beneath-the-waves-addressing-vulnerabilities-in-africas-undersea-digital-infrastructure?lang=en. A few months later, countries in East Africa, Europe and Asia also faced service interruptions following cuts to the Eastern Africa Submarine Cable System (EASSy) and the SEACOM cable in the Red Sea.

National infrastructure gap

Once SMCs are laid, access to telecommunications and the internet primarily relies on the terrestrial network at the national level. In African countries, this network is mainly the mobile infrastructure network, with cell towers the principal “last-mile” infrastructure (Figure 5.4a). In contrast, European countries extensively rely on fixed broadband networks, including when reaching the last mile, often relegating mobile infrastructure to a supplementary role (Figure 5.4b). This dual deployment pattern profoundly influences internet access devices and the types of digital services accessible to users.

Technology gap

An often overlooked dimension of digital inequality is the technology gap, which is the difference in the quality and capability of the digital tools available to users. Together with the infrastructure and usage gaps, it shapes how effectively individuals, firms and public institutions can apply digital technologies in daily life and economic activities. Ultimately, these gaps determine the kinds of innovations that emerge, who benefits from digital transformation and to what extent. (31)See Aker, J.C. and Cariolle, J. (2023). Mobile Phones and Development in Africa. Springer International Publishing AG. For instance, while nearly 74 percent of Europe’s population had access to 5G networks in 2025, only about 12 percent of Africans did (see Figure 5.5). Even within Africa there are stark disparities in the quality of mobile networks, which varies between urban and rural areas (see Figure 5.6).

In many low-income countries, particularly in Africa, the spread of advanced internet-based technologies remains constrained by low internet penetration and scarce fixed broadband coverage. As a result, much innovation has taken root on mobile platforms. Africa mobile money (MoMo) services, such as Kenya’s M-Pesa, show how digital solutions can scale inclusively when they work through basic mobile phones and unstructured supplementary service data (USSD) systems, without needing smartphones or internet access. (32)See Aker, J.C. and Cariolle, J. (2023). Mobile Phones and Development in Africa. Springer International Publishing AG.

Despite such success stories, the adoption of advanced digital technologies, such as AI, cloud computing, big data analytics and the Internet of Things, remains heavily concentrated in high-income and emerging regions, including Northern America, Western Europe and parts of Asia. These regions benefit from the combined expansion of fixed and mobile broadband networks that support data-intensive applications. Advanced technologies require stable, high-capacity connections, large-scale servers and platforms capable of managing vast data flows – conditions that are still rare in most developing economies.

The result is a dual digital landscape: some countries fully leverage high-value, data-driven innovation, while others depend mainly on simpler, mobile-based solutions. Figure 5.7 illustrates this divide. Countries with both fixed and mobile broadband access show higher innovation outputs, such as patent activity, compared to those with limited infrastructure.

In developing economies, affordability remains the main barrier to accessing high-speed internet, owning smartphones or using mobile internet, underscoring how economic and technological divides continue to reinforce each other. (33)See Global Findex (2025). The Global Findex Database: Connectivity and Financial Inclusion in the Digital Economy. World Bank Group.

Usage gap: digital literacy and human capital challenges

The usage gap is shaped by limited digital literacy, skills and the ability to engage in basic and advanced digital activities. At a basic level, digital literacy is often linked to broader affordability issues, as well as language barriers and restrictive social norms, particularly those that disadvantage women and marginalized communities in rural areas. Without these foundational capabilities, potential users cannot effectively utilize available digital technologies.

The gap in intermediate and advanced digital skills has strong ties with education and skilled labor deficits, which combine to shape the absorptive capacity of the population. Many educational systems struggle to cultivate the competencies needed for productive DT adoption, limiting the economic returns from DT investments and hindering the localization and development of contextually relevant digital applications. These challenges are not confined to developing economies. In both developed and developing countries, albeit to varying degrees, disparities persist between urban and rural areas, and between educational and training opportunities available to workers in large firms versus those in small and medium-sized enterprises.

The digital skills gap extends to businesses and governments, hindering organizational adoption of DTs. Similarly, limited technical capabilities within public institutions impede e-government initiatives and digital public services that could otherwise accelerate broader DT diffusion.

Affordability gap: submarine cable deployment and the cost of internet access

As mentioned earlier, the affordability gap continues to present a substantial barrier to DT adoption in low- and middle-income countries. The cost of basic connectivity – “first-mile” access – depends in large part on SMC systems. SMCs require investments of several hundred million dollars and are often financed by consortia of telecom operators. In recent years, large technology companies such as Google, Meta and Microsoft have become leading investors. By 2023, such firms accounted for nearly three-quarters of global bandwidth use. (34)See TeleGeography (2025). Transport Networks, formerly Global Bandwidth Research Service, https://submarine-cable-map-2025.telegeography.com.

These international bandwidths lower costs directly by cutting wholesale costs and indirectly by stimulating competition. The size of these effects depends on the structure of domestic markets and the strength of regulation. Empirical evidence from large samples of low-, middle- and high-income countries confirms that the relationship between SMC deployment and broadband prices is not straightforward. (35)See Cariolle, J., Houngbonon, G.V., Silue, T. et al. (2025). Submarine Cables, Internet Access Price and the Role of Competition and Regulation. Ferdi Working Paper No. 357. Updated version of the World Bank Policy Research Paper Series No. 10840. World Bank Group. In fact, the relationship shows a U-shaped pattern, meaning that low levels of capacity, increases tend to reduce prices, reflecting efficiency gains. Yet beyond a certain point, prices rise again. This may result from the higher costs of maintaining and upgrading infrastructure, or from weaker competitive pressure in large-capacity markets.

Moreover, doubling SMC capacity can cut mobile broadband prices by up to half and fixed broadband prices by about a third, with similar effects across regions. (36)See Cariolle, J., Houngbonon, G.V., Silue, T. et al. (2025). Submarine Cables, Internet Access Price and the Role of Competition and Regulation. Ferdi Working Paper No. 357. Updated version of the World Bank Policy Research Paper Series No. 10840. World Bank Group. These gains fade over time, especially in fixed broadband markets, where the impact disappears within four years. Over time, prices often return to earlier levels. This may reflect rising network investment costs or weak competitive pressure in fixed broadband markets. In such cases, infrastructure savings are not fully passed on to consumers, slowing internet adoption.

Market concentration also matters. In competitive markets, capacity expansions lead to sustained price reductions. Where markets are more concentrated, the impact of new cables is weaker, especially for fixed broadband. As a result, high costs can keep internet access out of reach in many developing economies, holding back the spread of advanced digital tools and reinforcing global divides. These results are important as they can be factored into policies to alleviate the barriers that disproportionately affect women, rural populations and marginalized communities and reinforce existing patterns of disadvantage.

Institutions, regulations and competition

Regulatory frameworks play a decisive role in determining how quickly and widely digital technologies spread. They shape market entry, competition and innovation, yet restrictive or outdated rules continue to slow DT adoption in many countries.

A country’s approach to digital regulation can profoundly affect how technologies take root across its economy. Evidence shows that, in the case of the internet, countries that require internet service providers (ISPs) to obtain formal approval before launching operations tend to have fewer users and hosts. Likewise, government regulation of ISP prices often results in higher end-user costs. (37)See Wallsten, S. (2005). Regulation and internet use in developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 53(2), 501–23. These findings highlight how regulatory choices can either promote or hinder digital inclusion.

Data governance frameworks have become another key determinant of diffusion. Clear data protection rules build trust and safeguard privacy, but overly restrictive or ambiguous regulations can deter innovation and raise compliance costs, especially for smaller firms that lack the capacity to navigate complex rules.

Policy predictability is equally critical for investment. Uncertainty or frequent regulatory changes increase risk for telecommunication providers, particularly given the long-term capital commitments required for broadband infrastructure. Stable and transparent regulatory environments are therefore essential to encourage sustained investment, fair competition and the continued spread of digital technologies.

Market structure also shapes DT diffusion by influencing prices, service quality and incentives for innovation. Research consistently shows that competition in telecommunications drives lower prices and better services. (38)See Fink, C., Mattoo, A. and Rathindran, R. (2003). An assessment of telecommunications reform in developing countries. Information Economics and Policy, 15(4), 443–466; Li, Wei and Xu, Lixin Colin (2001). Liberalization and Performance in Telecommunications Sector around the World. Washington, DC; and Wallsten, S. (2005). Regulation and internet use in developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 53(2), 501–23. However, in many regions, limited competition persists, resulting in market concentration and higher consumer prices.

Recent findings demonstrate that international bandwidth, delivered through SMCs, can reduce broadband costs through two main channels. (39)See Cariolle, J. (2026). Digital transformations in developing economies: From the first-mile infrastructure to the end-user fingertips. WIPO Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 96. Geneva: WIPO. First, it directly lowers wholesale prices by enabling economies of scale. Second, it indirectly reduces consumer prices when competition ensures that savings are passed on. Where competition remains weak, providers often capture most of these benefits, keeping prices elevated.

The strength of these effects depends on domestic market structure and regulatory oversight. Strong, independent regulators are therefore vital to ensure that infrastructure investments translate into affordable, high-quality connectivity and support broader digital inclusion.

Economic and social impact

The dual nature of digital diffusion and trade

Digital technology diffusion has a dual nature. It acts as a catalyst for export growth and productivity, yet it can also deepen global trade disparities. On the positive side, digital tools improve efficiency, reduce transaction costs and enable innovation. Firms benefit from better inventory management, customer engagement and data-driven decision-making. High-speed connectivity infrastructure has particularly strong effects. The arrival of the SEACOM and EASSy submarine cables in Eastern and Southern Africa, for example, led to higher exports in logistics-intensive sectors, such as minerals and vegetables. (40)See Cariolle, J. and Da Piedade, C. (Forthcoming). Submarine Cable Infrastructure and Trade in Africa.

Yet the benefits of connectivity are uneven. Studies show that, while new SMC links encourage export participation among firms in advanced economies, they can lead to exit among exporters in developing economies with limited capacity to absorb digital technologies. (41)See Imbruno, M., Cariolle, J. and de Melo, J. (2025). Digital connectivity and firm participation in foreign markets: An exporter-based bilateral analysisJournal of Development Economics, in press. Connectivity tends to benefit large, resource-rich firms more than smaller ones. As a result, bilateral submarine cable connections increase the number of exporters by almost 10 percent in developed economies but reduce it by about 8 percent in developing ones. (42)See Imbruno, M., Cariolle, J. and de Melo, J. (2022). Digital connectivity and firm participation in foreign markets: An exporter-based bilateral analysis, Journal of Development Economics, 177,103551.

Recent work highlights the importance of digital connectedness. (43)The concept of digital connectedness measures how closely a country is linked to world markets through its share of global gross domestic product (GDP) directly connected by submarine cables. See Cariolle, J. and Da Piedade, C. (2023). Digital connectedness and exports upgrading: Is Sub-Saharan Africa catching up? The World Economy, 46(11), 3325–44. Stronger digital ties expand access to information, technologies and regulations, encouraging export diversification and upgrading. The quality of these connections matters as much as their number. The study shows a positive correlation between international bandwidth capacity and resident patent applications, controlling for GDP per capita, suggesting that connectivity supports innovation beyond income effects. It also indicates that resident patenting is positively associated with high-tech exports. Finally, using digital connectedness instead of bandwidth capacity, it confirms that who a country is connected to is critical for the innovation process: controlling for both GDP per capita and bandwidth capacity, stronger ties to major economic hubs are associated with greater patent activity.

A study conducted on 60 developing countries, including 23 from Sub-Saharan Africa, shows a positive and significant effect of digital connectedness on export complexity, with especially strong impacts in SSA. (44)See Cariolle, J. and Da Piedade, C. (2023). Digital connectedness and exports upgrading: Is Sub-Saharan Africa catching up? The World Economy, 46(11), 3325–44. A notable finding is a new distance puzzle: in most regions, the effect of digital connectedness declines with greater distance from major markets except in SSA, where it increases. (45)See Imbruno, M., Cariolle, J. and de Melo, J. (2022). Digital connectivity and firm participation in foreign markets: An exporter-based bilateral analysis, Journal of Development Economics, in press. The study finds that a 3,000 km increase in sea distance reduces the effect on the economic complexity index (ECI) (46)Authors used ECI, a measure of export sophistication, and complemented it by alternative indicators, such as global value chain participation and product differentiation. See Rauch, J.E. (1999). Networks versus markets in international trade. Journal of International Economics, 48(1), 7–35. by 47 percent in non-SSA countries but increases it by 75 percent in SSA, suggesting that geographically remote SSA countries, facing high traditional trade barriers, gain disproportionately from improved digital connectivity.

Human capital also shapes outcomes. Broader primary education coverage strengthens the gains from connectivity, while limited internet penetration continues to hold back progress in many African economies.

Overall, the evidence shows that digital connectivity is multidimensional. It links directly to the four divides discussed earlier: the infrastructure gap, which reflects whether bandwidth connects to key global and local nodes; the technology gap, which captures the quality of digital technologies available to users; the usage gap, how effectively firms and individuals engage in basic and advanced digital activities; and the affordability gap, which concerns the cost of connectivity. Addressing all four is essential for digital diffusion to drive inclusive global growth.

Social inclusion and equity considerations

Beyond economic impacts, digital technology diffusion profoundly shapes social inclusion. Digital technologies can either reduce or deepen existing inequalities. This dual potential underscores the importance of inclusive approaches to digital development.

In rural areas, low population density, limited purchasing power and weaker digital skills often slow adoption, even where coverage exists. Yet, once adopted, the effects can be transformative. Mobile telecommunications can reduce isolation, and digital financial services can expand access to payments, credit and savings. The spread of mobile coverage and mobile phones has had a particularly strong impact on agricultural markets, lowering price dispersion and improving producers’ access to market information. (47)See Jensen, R. (2007). The digital provide: Information (technology), market performance, and welfare in the South Indian fisheries sector. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(3), 879–924; Aker, J.C. (2010). Information from markets near and far: Mobile phones and agricultural markets in Niger. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2(3), 46–59; Suri, T., Aker, J., Batista, C. et al. (2023). Mobile money. VoxDevLit, 2(2), 3.

By reducing the cost of obtaining and transmitting information, mobile phones can allow farmers and traders to monitor prices across distant markets more frequently and at lower cost. This helps them to identify better trading opportunities and avoid less favorable markets. Studies on India’s fisheries (48)See Jensen, R. (2007). The digital provide: Information (technology), market performance, and welfare in the South Indian fisheries sector. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(3), 879–924. and Niger’s grain markets (49)See Aker, J.C. (2010). Information from markets near and far: Mobile phones and agricultural markets in Niger. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2(3), 46–59. show that these information gains lead to narrower price gaps, higher and more stable producer prices, and less waste. Later work confirms that mobile coverage increases the number of markets that traders engage with and strengthens farmers’ bargaining power. (50)See Tack, J. and Aker, J.C. (2014). Information, mobile telephony, and traders' search behavior in Niger. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96(5), 1439–54.; Aker, J.C. and Fafchamps, M. (2015). Mobile phone coverage and producer markets: Evidence from West Africa. The World Bank Economic Review, 29(2), 262–92. However, the benefits are not uniform. Early adopters (often larger or better-connected traders) gain first, while late adopters may lag, creating new layers of inequality even as overall efficiency improves.

Evidence from the eight West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries shows that mobile connectivity has the strongest equalizing effect in agricultural tasks where labor markets are segmented by gender, helping to reduce wage disparities within these segments. (51)See Cariolle, J. and Carroll, A.D. (Forthcoming). Nouvelles dynamiques autour de l’économie numérique : La numérisation au service de l’emploi agricole et de la transformation rurale dans l’UEMOA. Ferdi report. Mobile access to information also enables farmers to use hired labor more effectively and strengthens workers’ bargaining position.

For women, these benefits can be particularly significant. Mobile technologies can help them monetize previously unpaid tasks and negotiate higher wages. (52)See Ngoa, G.B.N. and Song, J.S. (2021). Female participation in African labor markets: The role of information and communication technologies. Telecommunications Policy, 45(9), 102174; Cariolle, J. and Dsouza, A. (Forthcoming), Rural Youth Employment in the West African Economic and Monetary Untion. Ferdi report, 96 pages. Studies find a consistent positive relationship between proximity to 2G+ networks and female wages across multiple agricultural activities, while the link for men is weaker and more varied. This suggests that mobile connectivity delivers disproportionate gains for women, with gender wage gaps widening as distance from network coverage increases. (53)See Cariolle, J. and Da Piedade, C. (Forthcoming). Submarine Cable Infrastructure and Trade in Africa. Mobile phone owners also consume more market-purchased food and rely less on self-production, with the shift toward market-based consumption particularly strong in rural areas. (54)See Cariolle, J. and Carroll, D. (2025). From Phone Access to Food Markets: How Mobile Connectivity is Transforming Rural Livelihoods in West Africa. Ferdi Working Paper No. 341.

Employment and labor market transformations

The diffusion of digital technologies is reshaping labor markets around the world, transforming the demand for skills, the structure of employment and the geography of work. (55)See Akerman, A., Gaarder, I. and Mogstad, M. (2015). The skill complementarity of broadband internet. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(4), 1781–824. Digitalization creates new opportunities for job growth, entrepreneurship and productivity gains. DTs can complement labor, enable new forms of work and expand market access, particularly through e-commerce, remote work and online services. Evidence from literature indicates that regions with higher digital adoption tend to experience faster employment growth in technology-intensive and service-oriented sectors, as well as positive spillover effects across local economies. (56)See Braesemann, F., Stephany, F., Teutloff, O. et al. (2022). The global polarisation of remote work. PloS one, 17(10), e0274630.

However, these gains are unevenly distributed. (57)See Hjort, J. and Poulsen, J. (2019). The arrival of fast Internet and employment in Africa. American Economic Review, 109(3), 1032–79. Automation and AI are increasingly replacing routine and manual tasks, displacing workers in certain occupations while creating demand for new, often higher-skilled, roles. This shift has widened wage inequalities and regional divides, especially between workers with advanced digital skills and those without. The platform economy has also generated both opportunities and vulnerabilities. While digital platforms enable flexible and cross-border work, they often depend on precarious, low-paid or invisible labor. Recent research highlights the hidden human effort behind the AI economy, where large-scale data annotation, content moderation and training tasks are outsourced to low-wage workers in developing countries. (58)See Cant, C., Muldoon, J. and Graham, M. (2024). Feeding the Machine: The Hidden Human Labor Powering AI. Bloomsbury Publishing USA.

These contrasting dynamics illustrate the dual nature of digital diffusion in the labor market. On the one hand, digital technologies can foster inclusive growth, stimulate innovation and create new pathways for youth and women’s participation. On the other, they risk reinforcing structural inequalities if benefits are concentrated among highly skilled, well-connected workers in urban areas.

Intellectual property role in diffusion of digital technologies

Intellectual property (IP) systems play a central role in shaping how digital technologies spread. Patent protection, licensing models and trademark regimes all influence who innovates, who gains access and how fast technologies move across markets.

The patent landscape for digital technologies is highly concentrated. Most DT patent applications come from five major jurisdictions; namely, China, the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea and the European Patent Office (see Figure 5.8). Together, they account for most global filings. This concentration creates uneven diffusion patterns, as technology often follows the investment and licensing channels controlled by leading patent holders. (59)See WIPO (2022). World Intellectual Property Report 2022: The Direction of Innovation.Geneva: WIPO.https://www.wipo.int/en/web/world-ip-report/2022/index

Digital technologies typically integrate multiple layers of innovation, many of which rely on technology standards. Technology standards are developed and established in standardization organizations (SOs), also referred to as standards development organizations (SDOs) or standard-setting organizations (SSOs). SOs bring together a range of stakeholders, including industry representatives, researchers, and policymakers, to collaborate in identifying the most effective technical solutions for a given standard. When participants in SOs contribute protected technical solutions to a standard, they commit to licensing their relevant patents to implementers in accordance with the SO’s intellectual property rights (IPR) policy. These IPR policies vary, but they generally seek to strike a balance between the interests of SEP owners in recouping research and development investments, on the one hand, and implementers’ access to standardized technologies, on the other. For example, the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) brings together, so-called Organizational Partners, seven regional and national SDOs. (60)See https://www.3gpp.org/about-us/partners. These SDOs have agreed that their IPR policies should be compatible and respected by their respective members, who are encouraged to declare "their willingness to grant licenses on fair, reasonable, and non-discriminatory (FRAND)" terms. (61)See Article 3.1 3GPP agreement: https://www.3gpp.org/ftp/Inbox/2008_web_files/3gppagre.pdf; https://www.3gpp.org/about-us/3gpp-faqs. Members are also expected to declare, at the earliest opportunity, any IPR they believe to be essential or potentially essential to ongoing work within 3GPP. (62)See Article 55 of the 3GPP Working Procedures: https://www.3gpp.org/ftp/Information/Working_Procedures/3GPP_WP.htm#Article_55, https://www.3gpp.org/about-us/3gpp-faqs. This call for the declaration of potential SEPs, together with the undertaking to license on FRAND terms, plays a key role in facilitating the diffusion of technologies by helping to create equitable market conditions for both SEP owners and implementers, and by promoting competition and innovation in industries that rely on standardized technologies. However, FRAND negotiations can be complex and may pose a particular burden for smaller companies and firms from developing economies. (63)See World Bank (2025). World Development Report 2025: Standards for Development. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2025

The economic importance of SEPs has grown in recent decades. (64)See Contreras, J.L. (2019). Technical Standards, Standards-setting Organizations, and Intellectual Property: A Survey of the Literature (with an emphasis on empirical approaches). Edward Elgar Publishing, 185–235. SEPs often command a higher value since they are integral to industry standards. Firms use them both as strategic assets in cross-licensing negotiations and as sources of direct revenue. Researchers measure this value through indicators such as patent transfers, citations, litigation and firm performance.

Beyond patents, other forms of IP strongly affect digital diffusion. Evidence shows that firms with greater DT capital tend to file new trademarks more frequently and retire existing ones more rapidly, resulting in shorter trademark life cycles. This reflects the faster pace of innovation and product turnover in digital industries, where business value is often realized through greater product variety, as captured by the number of trademarks held. (65)See Gao, G. and Hitt, L.M. (2012). Information technology and trademarks: Implications for product variety. Management Science, 58(6), 1211–26. In recent years, the aesthetic appeal of digital products, protected by industrial designs, has also become increasingly important in influencing consumer preferences and adoption. Copyright shapes software adoption, and the rise of open-source licensing has transformed how technologies cross borders and industries. Data protection frameworks also matter.

At the same time, the growing market concentration of major digital platforms raises new policy challenges. A small number of global technology firms increasingly control key digital infrastructures, data resources and IP portfolios, shaping the direction and speed of diffusion. Ensuring dynamic competition therefore requires regulatory frameworks that prevent excessive market dominance, encourage interoperability and promote open innovation. Balancing the legitimate protection of IP rights with measures that safeguard competition and facilitate entry for smaller and local innovators remains a central policy priority for inclusive digital transformation.

Conclusions and policy implications

Several key findings emerge from this analysis of global digital technology diffusion patterns. First, while digital technologies have spread more rapidly than earlier waves of innovation, the depth and quality of adoption differ widely both across and within countries. The classic S-shaped adoption curve remains a useful model, yet its steepness and timing depend heavily on enabling conditions, particularly infrastructure availability, local absorptive capacity, affordability and institutional and regulatory support.

Second, key features of digital technologies, such as their nature as GPTs, and the presence of strong network effects and their adherence to Moore’s Law, make their diffusion fundamentally different from that of other types of technology.

Third, DTs tend to amplify existing strengths and weaknesses rather than generate development automatically. Barriers to diffusion often interact, creating overlapping constraints that single-issue or siloed policy approaches struggle to overcome. Evidence shows that comprehensive digital economy strategies, which integrate infrastructure, skills and regulatory measures, achieve greater and more sustainable impact than fragmented initiatives.

Fourth, the dual nature of digital diffusion in trade and productivity further highlights the importance of complementary policies. While digital connectivity can boost exports, innovation and diversification, gains often accrue disproportionately to large firms and advanced economies. Evidence from Africa shows that investments in submarine cables, mobile infrastructure and digital connectedness yield the strongest benefits when supported by human capital development, digital skills training and inclusive policies that enable smaller firms and marginalized groups to participate in global markets.

Fifth, regulatory and market conditions are central to digital technology diffusion. Outdated rules, weak competition and policy uncertainty raise costs, deter investment and limit inclusion. Transparent, stable regulation and strong competition oversight are essential to ensure that infrastructure investments translate into affordable, high-quality and inclusive digital connectivity.

Sixth, IP systems are pivotal in determining how digital technologies diffuse across economies. While IP protection supports innovation and interoperability through the participation of innovative companies in technology standardization, supra-FRAND licensing rates, complex licensing negotiations, and fragmented data governance can slow diffusion, especially in developing economies. Knowledge sharing, education and balanced IP governance are critical for inclusive digital transformation.

In sum, accelerating and broadening the diffusion of digital technologies requires a holistic policy approach. Expanding infrastructure must go hand in hand with strengthening competition, reforming regulatory frameworks, investing in human capital and promoting equitable IP governance. These combined actions will help to ensure that digital transformation becomes a driver of inclusive and sustainable growth, enabling all economies, and all people, to participate fully in the opportunities of the digital age.