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Innovation Capabilities Outlook 2026
This inaugural edition presents groundbreaking analytical methodology using patents, trademarks, publications, and exports data to comprehensively map global capability networks and systematically examine strategic diversification pathways for worldwide innovation ecosystems. Innovation Capabilities Outlook 2026 establishes a global baseline for innovation ecosystem analysis.
Publication year: 2026
The Future is Under the Glass: Digital Design Protection and Appropriation Strategy
Economic Research Working Paper No.97
The paper examines how legal certainty shapes protection and appropriation of digital designs such as icons, animations, and layouts. Leveraging the 2012 Apple v. Samsung verdict as a decisive clarification of their protectability and enforceability, we analyze USPTO design patents from 2009–2015 using a matched difference-in-differences approach. We show that legal certainty reduces due diligence costs far more than monitoring costs. This asymmetry lowers the threshold for securing protection, leading to a 9 percent increase in digital design patents. At the same time, appropriation shifted away from licensing toward transfers, with the effect strongest in dense design spaces where monitoring costs remain high despite increased legal certainty. These findings extend transaction cost theory by showing that legal certainty unevenly reduces transaction costs, which in turn alters protection thresholds and shifts appropriation strategies. They also demonstrate how policy changes influence innovation when value is created “under the glass.”.
Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT)
Regulations under the PCT (as in force from January 1, 2026)
The Patent Cooperation Treaty makes it possible to seek patent protection for an invention simultaneously in each of a large number of countries by filing an "international" patent application. Such an application may be filed by anyone who is a national or a resident of a Contracting State.
The Technological Potential of Innovation Ecosystems: An Inter-Dimensional Network Approach
Economic Research Working Paper No.90
In developing countries' innovation activities, limited patenting suggests structural gaps that hinder technological progress. This paper investigates whether countries can leverage their scientific and productive capabilities to realize untapped technological potential. We analyze connections between trade, science, and technology across global innovation ecosystems and introduce an indicator to assess where countries are positioned to expand their technological capabilities. Our results show that the indicator predicts technological output growth, though growth slows when countries exceed their predicted potential, indicating diminishing returns. The indicator performs better in more complex ecosystems. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, offering a framework to address weaknesses in innovation ecosystems and foster balanced, sustainable technological development.