WO/BC/19/2-WO/PC/9/2

Attachment 5

Background to Forecasts of Numbers of WIPO Staff Members,
Contained in Paragraphs 16 to 21 of Document WO/GA/22/1

1. The forecasts of numbers of WIPO staff members contained in paragraphs 16 to 21 of document WO/GA/22/1 were developed by the Secretariat based upon its experience and its best judgment as to the development of staff numbers over the next decade. The forecasts were, furthermore, based on the following:

(a) actual levels of activity under the PCT, Madrid and Hague systems over the past three biennia and budgeted for the 1998-99 biennium;

(b) considerations contained in the study of automation of the PCT system undertaken by the Deloitte & Touche Consulting Group (entitled WIPO Evaluation Study into the Information and Document Management Needs of the PCT Sector) concerning the reductions of staff expected to result from such automation;

(c) productivity gains (whose impact over a 10 year period can generally only be estimated) expected to result from increased use of information technology throughout the Secretariat, with the associated increase in the effectiveness and efficiency of the work carried out;

(d) considerations contained in the report of the independent expert, Mr. Alec Sugden, which provided staff projections to 2006 (contained in the Annex to document WO/BC/XV/2-WO/PC/VI/2 dated July 23, 1996), updated and extended to the year 20081.

2. For each of the paragraphs 16 to 21 (and their sub-paragraphs) of document WO/GA/22/1, the following paragraphs provide information regarding the basis for the forecasts of numbers of WIPO staff members, and indicate the impact of information technology that was specifically considered in making those forecasts (in addition to the general benefits of increased use of information technology throughout the Secretariat).

3. ad paragraph 16 of document WO/GA/22/1. Forecasts for Part I: Policy, Direction and Management.

Staff increase forecast:

1999 73.5 staff
2008 91 to 104 staff

The conservative increase of 2% to 4% p.a., which is less than the overall increase forecast for the Secretariat, is based on the Secretariat's best judgment.

Impact of information technology: As concerns the WIPO Mediation and Arbitration Center, growth in the numbers of staff could be very large if WIPO plays an important role in dispute-resolution between private parties, including with regard to Internet domain names. As concerns the Information Products Section, improvements in the information system for publication sales, notably the introduction of an "electronic bookshop", combined with the gradual shift from paper to electronic publications, and taking advantage of the electronic infrastructure that will be in place (including the WIPO Global Information Network) should result in a reduction in the number of staff needed for a given volume of publication sales and distribution (although the demand for information products and services is expected to grow).

4. ad paragraph 17 of document WO/GA/22/1. Forecasts for Part II: Cooperation for Development and WIPO Worldwide Academy.

Staff increase forecast:

1999 88 staff
2008 137 to 177 staff

(a) Considerable requests for assistance are expected in the future, especially after January 1, 2000, when most countries have to have systems in place to satisfy their TRIPS obligations; increased assistance will be needed, in particular, concerning the development and operation of their intellectual property systems and enforcement mechanisms, including the most effective use of information technology. Increased assistance will also be needed in the development and promotion of the use of intellectual property. Demands for human resources development are also expected to continue to rise; the effective use of information technology-based training, teaching and advisory services should enable such demands to be met with a lower rate of increase of staff.

(b) The following numbers of posts for staff members in the Development Cooperation and External Relations Units have been budgeted for the past three biennia and for Cooperation for Development and WIPO Worldwide Academy in the 1998-99 biennium:

Year

Staff Members

% Increase

 
1992

42.5

   
1993

42.5

0%

)
1994

49

15.3%

)
1995

52

6.1%

) 12.5%
1996

61

17.3%

) Average
1997R

75.5

23.8%

) 1992-1997
1998

88

   
1999

88

   

(c) It was assumed that while the requests for assistance will continue to grow, the future growth of staff will be at less than the 12.5% average growth over the past few biennia, through the effective use of information technology. Noting that the growth of staff for 1999 over 1997R is 8% p.a. for two years, a rate of growth of 5% to 8% p.a. was forecast for the years after 1999.

Impact of information technology: Information technology will have a significant impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of the work carried out, increasing the possibilities of distance learning, capacity building and, more importantly, decentralization of the activities into the institutions of the member States through the WIPO Global Information Network. Any possibility for a reduction in staff will be more than offset by the increased demand for information, training and assistance, resulting in the forecasted growth in staff.

5. ad paragraph 18 of document WO/GA/22/1. Forecasts for Part III: Progressive Development of Intellectual Property Law and Standing Committees.

Staff increase forecast:

1999 32 staff
2008 41 to 46 staff

The growing importance of this core activity is indicated by the increase from 25 staff for 1997R to 32 staff for 1998 and 1999. The nominal increase of staff, at 2% to 4% p.a. thereafter, which is less than the overall increase forecast for the Secretariat, is based on the Secretariat's best judgment as to future staff needs.

Impact of information technology: The information technology global revolution is an identifiable factor in the underlying growth forecasts in this area. The rapid pace of technological change and the global impact of the Internet and its effect on intellectual property rights will continue to present new challenges and new issues to be resolved, requiring additional staff to cope with the extra demand. The pressing need to address the intellectual property issues related to electronic commerce is one example of the new challenges that are directly related to information technology.

6. ad paragraph 19 of document WO/GA/22/1. Forecasts for Part IV: Global Information Network and Intellectual Property Information Services.

Staff increase forecast:

1999 44 staff
2008 69 to 89 staff

(a) The establishment and operation of the Global Information Network is a new type of activity for WIPO, which is expected to lead to some future staff increases, even with a maximum level of outsourcing.

(b) The provision of intellectual property information services, notably the development of Intellectual Property Digital Libraries (IPDLs) to make intellectual property information available worldwide, is also expected to lead to future staff increases.

(c) Information systems are already used in virtually every aspect of the activities of the Secretariat, and these will be developed and improved, along with the internal network services, in order to make effective use of new technologies and software, and thereby increase the productivity of operations within the Secretariat. This will require growing numbers of information technology staff.

(d) In light of these requirements, the Secretariat's best judgment was that there would be a rate of growth of staff of 5% to 8% p.a. after 1999.

Impact of information technology: New activities are involved which are entirely dependent on information technology, and this whole area is specifically concerned with the important matter of the effective application of information technology. It will therefore involve staff growth, but will lead to significant productivity gains in other areas. As the capacity of countries to absorb information technology increases, a continuing growth of demand is anticipated.

7. ad paragraph 20 of document WO/GA/22/1. Forecasts for Part V: Global Protection Systems and Services

(i) PCT System.

Staff increase forecast:

1999 254.5 staff
2008 297 to 384 staff

(a) The following numbers of international applications (IAs) were received for the past three biennia, and are budgeted for the 1998-99 biennium.


Year

International
Applications


% Increase

 
1992

25,917

   
1993

28,577

10.3%

)
1994

34,104

19.3%

)
1995

38,906

14.1%

) 16.1% p.a.
1996

47,291

21.6%

) Average
1997

54,422

15.1%

) 1992-1997
1998

59,000

   
1999

64,000

   

(b) For the "conservative forecast" given in paragraph 20(i) of document WO/GA/22/1, the increase of some 5,000 IAs p.a. budgeted for the 1998-99 biennium has been assumed to continue to 2008, resulting in 109,000 IAs for 2008 (i.e., an increase of 70% over the 1999 budget level).

(c) For the "higher forecast" given in paragraph 20(i) of document WO/GA/22/1, the 15% increase of 1997 over 1996 is assumed to continue for 1998, implying an increase of 8,163 IAs, then the slightly lower figure of 8,000 IAs p.a. is forecast for the years 1999 to 2003, then 7,000 IAs p.a. is forecast for the years 2004 to 2008 (noting that the increases for 1996 and 1997 were 8,385 and 7,131 IAs, respectively), resulting in 138,000 IAs for 2008 (i.e., an increase of 116% over the 1999 budget level).

(d) Both of these forecasts of numbers of IAs are arguably low in light of the percentage increase of 16.1% p.a. over the past three biennia. Indeed, the growth of use of the PCT system in the first three months of 1998 is even greater than had been expected, with 16,437 IAs in those three months, which is 36.5% more than the number of 12,042 IAs in the corresponding three months in 1997. The projected number of IAs for 1998 is therefore expected to be well above the figure of 59,000 budgeted.

(e) For each year, for both the "conservative" and "higher" forecasts of IAs, the numbers of PCT staff (including short-termers) that would be needed based on the existing system for handling IAs were first calculated, and are shown as "staff PCT without IT" on the attached spreadsheets developed from the spreadsheet in the Deloitte & Touche study (Deliverable No 13 entitled "Qualitative and Quantitative Benefits" reference S.P0565.40.13 (Issue 1.4)), pages 23 and 24). These numbers of PCT staff provided a baseline from which projected savings in staff numbers due to automation could be deducted.

(f) Those savings in staff that would result from the automation of the PCT system (including the major new electronic document management system, the gradual use of the EASY system and electronic filing of IAs, and productivity gains through other improvements in the processing of IAs) were then calculated, based on the considerations in the Deloitte & Touche study (Deliverable No 13 entitled "Qualitative and Quantitative Benefits" reference S.P0565.40.13 (Issue 1.4)). The staff savings involve, in particular, reduced numbers of data entry staff (due to progressively eliminating the data entry role), reduced numbers of examiners (due to the progressive elimination of much bad data as a result of EASY), reduced publications staff (due to the progressive elimination of publications roles), reduced reproduction staff (due to moving to having only a few paper copies of PCT pamphlets printed; this saving is reflected below in paragraph 8(iv) for the Conference and Operational Services Division), and reduction of other staff (due to additional process enhancements). Offsetting those reductions would be additional staff needed for data capture during the transitional phase (as paper and facsimile input are gradually replaced by electronic input) plus additional information technology support staff. The resulting numbers of PCT staff (including short-termers) are shown (as "net staff PCT with IT") on the attached spreadsheets. The final line of those spreadsheets shows the corresponding forecast numbers of PCT staff members (excluding short-termers) based on the 1999 situation (taking into account nine fixed posts (Deputy Director General and his immediate staff, Developing Countries (PCT) Division, and two other posts) as well as three fixed posts for supporting the development and deployment of the PCT automation project (see document A/32/5, paragraph 15)); those forecast numbers of PCT staff members are given in Table 3 and paragraph 20(i) of document WO/GA/22/1.

(g) The figures in Table 3 and paragraph 20(i) of document WO/GA/22/1 imply considerable productivity increases resulting from the effective use of information technology. To illustrate, having 227.5 staff members for 54,422 IAs in 1997R implies an overall productivity of 239 IAs handled per staff member, becoming 251 IAs handled per staff member in 1999, with 254.5 staff members for 64,000 IAs. For the conservative growth scenario, less staff members (249) would handle 79,000 IAs in 2002, implying an overall productivity of 317 IAs handled per staff member, reaching 367 IAs handled per staff member in 2008 when 297 staff would handle 109,000 IAs (which implies an expected productivity increase of over 50% for 2008 as compared to 1997R). Comparable productivity gains accrue for the higher growth scenario.

Impact of information technology: See sub-paragraphs (f) and (g), above.

(ii) Madrid System.

Staff increase forecast:

1999 60.5 staff
2008 107.5 to 134 staff

(a) The following numbers of international registrations were published (up to 1995) or recorded (as from 1996) during the past three biennia, and are budgeted for the 1998-99 biennium.


Year

International
Registrations


% Increase

 
1992

15,702

   
1993

16,498

5.1%

)
1994

17,486

6.0%

)
1995

18,852

7.8%

) 4.0% p.a.
1996

18,485

-1.9%

) Average
1997

19,070

3.2%

) 1992-1997
1998

20,200

5.9%

 
1999

21,400

5.9%

 
       

(b) The average for the past three biennia is 4.0% p.a., and the average budgeted for the 1998-99 biennium is 5.9% p.a. (reflecting the higher numbers expected with more States members of the Agreement and Protocol), leading to the assumption of an underlying growth of 5% p.a. in numbers of applications for international registrations.

(c) The "two scenarios" given in paragraph 20(ii) of document WO/GA/22/1 relate to the impact of accessions to the Madrid Protocol, and concern both the timing and the resulting further growth in applications for international registration that would result from further accessions, in particular, the accessions of the United States of America, Japan and the European Community. The "lower growth scenario" adds 10% p.a. for the three years 2002 to 2004 whereas the "higher growth scenario" adds 20% p.a. for the years 2000 to 2002. Such accessions and their impact must be considered for planning purposes but cannot be assured.

(d) For the year 2008, the "lower growth scenario" would result in some 43,600 applications for international registration (i.e., an increase of 104% over the 1999 budget level), whereas the "higher growth scenario" would result in some 56,000 applications for international registration (i.e., an increase of 162% over the 1999 budget level).

(e) For the purpose of calculating the corresponding staff growth, an adjustment was made involving 15 fixed posts (management, legal staff, information technology staff and secretaries), which were excluded from the calculation of the growth of the Madrid staff.

(f) The results of those scenarios are the following numbers of staff forecast for the Madrid system. (Also shown are the numbers of staff for the Hague system, as explained in the following section, which give the total Madrid/Hague numbers of staff shown in Table 3 of document WO/GA/22/1.)

 

Staff Members

Year

Madrid System

Hague System

Total

1997R

54.5

11

65.5

1998

58.5

12

70.5

1999

60.5

12.5

73

2000

63 - 72.5

13 - 13.5

76 - 86

2001

65.5 - 86

13.5 - 14

79 - 100

2002

72.5 - 104

13.5 - 15

86 - 119

2003

82 - 108.5

14 - 15.5

96 - 124

2004

91.5 - 113.5

14.5 - 16.5

106 - 130

2005

95 - 118.5

15 - 17.5

110 - 136

2006

99.5 - 123.5

15.5 - 18.5

115 - 142

2007

103 - 128

16 - 20

119 - 148

2008

107.5 - 134

16.5 - 21

124 - 155

Impact of information technology: Since the operations under the Madrid system are now essentially paperless, due to the extensive use of modern information systems, no further savings in staff are expected to accrue from further information technology developments, assuming that the Offices joining the Madrid system would participate fully in the electronic exchange of data.

(iii) Hague System.

Staff increase forecast:

1999 12.5 staff
2008 16.5 to 21 staff

(a) The following numbers of deposits and renewals or prolongations were recorded during the past three biennia, and are budgeted for the 1998-99 biennium.


Year

Deposits and
Renewals


% Increase

 
1992

4,783

   
1993

5,198

8.7%

)
1994

5,446

4.5%

)
1995

5,611

3.0%

) 5.4% p.a.
1996

5,832

3.9%

) Average
1997

6,223

6.7%

) 1992-1997
1998

6,500

4.5%

 
1999

6,800

4.6%

 

(b) The average for the past three biennia is 5.4% p.a., and the average budgeted for the 1998-99 biennium is 4.5% p.a., leading to the assumption of a 4% p.a. to 5% p.a. growth of applications for international deposit and renewals or prolongations.

(c) The application of information technology should lead to staff savings, whereas a higher rate of growth of applications could follow after the entry into force of a new Act of the Hague Agreement. Reflecting those factors, the Secretariat's best judgment was to use a slightly wider range of 3% p.a. to 6% p.a. for growth in numbers of staff, giving the results shown above for the Hague system.

Impact of information technology: The further use of electronic publication techniques combined with computerized operations should reduce the impact on staff growth resulting from a possible growth in applications after the entry into force of the new Act.

8. ad paragraph 21 of document WO/GA/22/1: Forecasts for Part VI: General Support Services.

The following five units comprise the "General Support Services"; the total of the numbers of staff members for those units as indicated in the table below, give the numbers shown in Table 3 of document WO/GA/22/1.

(i) Human Resources Management.

Staff increase forecast:

1999 30 staff
2008 39 to 48 staff

The level of human resources management activities of recruitment, staff development and administration of staff entitlements are very much dependent upon the size of the Secretariat. A considerable use is already made of information systems and these will continue to be improved. At the same time, staff development activities will be increased, in order to enable staff throughout the Secretariat to develop their skills and make optimal use of their capabilities. The Secretariat's best estimate is for a growth of one or two staff members per year for the years after 1999, giving the results shown in the table below the overall increase of 30% to 60% for 2008 over 1999 is virtually the same as the increase forecast for the Secretariat as a whole.

(ii) Finance Division.

Staff increase forecast:

1999 38 staff
2008 48 to 53 staff

The workload of the Finance Division depends on the size of the Secretariat (for the payroll and general expenses), on the level of the activities serving the market sector (notably the PCT, Madrid and Hague systems and the WIPO Arbitration and Mediation Center), and on the level of other WIPO activities (notably for cooperation for development). The staff of the Secretariat was forecast to grow by 29% to 60% for 2008 as compared to 1999; the growth of the number of PCT IAs was forecast to increase by +70% to +116% over the same period, and the growth of Madrid applications for international registration was forecast to increase by +104% to +162% over the same period. With productivity gains expected to result from the modernization of the finance information systems, notably with the new FINAUT 2000 system, the growth of the staff of the Finance Division was forecast at a lower level than the above-mentioned increases, and was taken to involve two new staff per biennium for the lower forecast, and three new staff per biennium for the higher forecast, resulting in the numbers of staff (for the Finance Division plus the Office of the ADG) shown in the table below.





Year



Human Resources Management


Finance Division




Languages Division

Conference and Operational Services Division




Buildings Division





Total

                                     
1997R

28

37

30.5

57.5

20

173

1998

30

38

34

57.5

20

179.5

1999

30

38

34

57.5

20

179.5

2000

31

-

32

40

-

41

36

-

38

57

-

58

22

-

24

186

-

193
2001

32

-

34

40

-

41

36

-

38

56

-

58

22

-

24

186

-

195
2002

33

-

36

42

-

44

38

-

42

56

-

58

22

-

24

191

-

204
2003

34

-

38

42

-

44

38

-

42

54

-

55

22

-

24

190

-

203
2004

35

-

40

44

-

47

40

-

46

51

-

54

23

-

25

193

-

212
2005

36

-

42

44

-

47

40

-

46

49

-

52

23

-

25

192

-

212
2006

37

-

44

46

-

50

42

-

50

46

-

53

24

-

26

197

-

223
2007

38

-

46

46

-

50

42

-

50

48

-

54

24

-

26

198

-

226
2008

39

-

48

48

-

53

44

-

54

48

-

54

25

-

27

204

-

236

(iii) Languages Division.

Staff increase forecast:

1999 34 staff
2008 44 to 54 staff

(a) The best estimate of the Secretariat was that the number of staff would grow at a rate of two to four staff per biennium, which gives the results shown in the table above the increase of 29% to 59% for 2008 over 1999 is virtually the same as the increase forecast for the Secretariat as a whole.

(b) These forecasts are arguably low in the light of the need for the Secretariat to respond to the demands that were expressed at the recent meetings of the Budget and Premises Committees and at the recent Assemblies of the Member States of WIPO for a considerably increased use of languages.

(iv) Conference and Operational Services Division.

Staff reduction forecast:

1999 57.5 staff
2008 48 to 54 staff

(a) With much reduced printing of PCT pamphlets following large-scale automation of the PCT system, the Deloitte & Touche study (Deliverable No 13 entitled "Qualitative and Quantitative Benefits" reference S.P0565.40.13 (Issue 1.4)) indicates that a major reduction of staff would be expected in the PCT printshop.

(b) Higher levels of activity for the Division are expected as the Secretariat and the activities of the Organization grow. However, extensive use of information technology is planned, involving, in particular, equipping the WIPO printing plant with state-of-the art technology in an integrated printing network, developing an integrated records management system for managing electronic and paper-based communications and documents, using the Global Information Network for the worldwide distribution of information and documents, and using the Intranet to reduce internal paper flows. Those improvements, and bringing together the presently dispersed staff of the Secretariat, will result in major productivity gains, enabling those higher levels of activity to be handled with only slight increases in staff.

(c) In the light of those factors, the Secretariat's best estimate was that the overall number of staff will be held essentially at and below the present number of 57.5 budgeted for 1999, as shown in the table above.

(v) Buildings Division.

Staff increase forecast:

1999 20 staff
2008 25 to 27 staff

An initial increase of two to four staff was assumed for 2000, to deal with the various construction projects, involving the modernization, renovation, extension and connection of the WMO Building and possibly construction of a building on the Steiner lot. Once those projects would be completed, and the presently dispersed staff of the Secretariat would be brought together, there would be savings (in technical and security staff) due to the co-location of premises. With the growing Secretariat, the best judgment of the Secretariat was that a slight growth in staff should be assumed involving one staff member per biennium. These estimates give the results shown in the table above; the increase of 20% to 35% for 2008 over 1999 is lower than the increase forecast for the Secretariat as a whole.

Impact of information technology in "General Support Services": Within the five units comprising the "General Support Services", there is already good use made of information technology, and improvements in information systems are expected to result in substantial productivity gains and staff savings. With the emergence of new technologies in the field of translation (including terminology data bases, computer-assisted translation and voice recognition), electronic publication and records management systems, it is expected that staff growth in the future will be further contained. In the longer term, the WIPO Global Information Network will play a significant role in the Secretariat's information dissemination policies, and this will undoubtedly affect services such as those of the Conference and Operational Services Division and Human Resources Management, as they take full advantage of the new possibilities offered by information technology.


1 Due to the changed structure of the Secretariat in the 1998-99 biennium, however, many of the projections in the Sugden report are not directly applicable.